NFL Playoffs - Championship Weekend Picks

Filed in archive on January 19, 2007

So last week I did pretty good picking them, with my underdog parlay v. the spread being good for quite a little bump in the old cashroll, so now it's time to turn my attention to the penultimate weekend of the playoffs - the Conference Championships.

First up, we have the Saints marching into Chicago to take on the blustery bears, and the blustery winds in the biggest playoff game of Saints history. This is the team's first trip to the conference championship in their 40-year history, and they plan to make the most of it behind Deuce McCallister, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston and Drew Brees. The Saints offense has been explosive this year, and the Chicago defense is no longer nearly as fearsome as it was to begin the season.

Not only are the Saints the NFL's feel-good story of the year, they are the better team offensively. The perennial questions about Rex Grossman were silenced for a few days with his performance in last week's playoff victory over Seattle, but the first stupid throw he makes, and the fickle Chicago fans will be screaming for his head. With questions on offense, and a weakened defense, Chicago just didn't look impressive last week against Seattle, a team they should have put away handily, but needed an overtime field goal to send packing.

My pick - I'm taking the Saints at +2, and I like the OVER at 43 for this game. I don't think the once-formidable Bears defense can keep the score down enough.

Our night game is a ratings bonanza. Manning v. Brady. Again. In the playoffs. Again. The two top contenders in the AFC year after year, set for another shootout, this time on Indy's home turf. If you don't think it's a comfort factor for Peyton Manning to have this game in the RCA dome this weekend, you're sniffing glue. He's been waxed on almost every trip to Foxborough, so having Brady and Belichik to come to him will make P-Money's job all the easier.

Peyton hasn't looked like much in these playoffs, but neither has Brady. But Brady never looks impressive, he just wins. And wins. And wins. Even so, I'm going with Peyton to take the monkey off his back and shoot it dead in the RCA Dome Sunday night. I like the Colts at -3 and AGAIN with the over on this one. The line is at 47, but I think this one goes deep early and often and ends up well over 50 points for the night.

So my four-team parlay looks like this:
Saints +2
Saints v. Bears OVER
Colts -3
Colts v. patriots OVER

Wish me luck and long passing!